WE CALLED IT. CHENNAI SUPER KINGS. AND THEY DELIVERED IN HISTORIC FASHION.

Let's talk about last night.

Before a ball was bowled at Wankhede, we put out the call: back Chennai Super Kings at 2.5. The market had Mumbai Indians as the clear favourites at 1.6 — home ground, home crowd, the so-called "El Clasico" of the IPL. The public was split almost 50/50 on the winner. The noise was loud.

Our models weren't listening to the noise.

The numbers had CSK winning this game around 68% of the time. The market was implying closer to 40%. That gap - that's where the value lives. And when value is that clear, you back it.

🏏 WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED

Sanju Samson walked to the crease and proceeded to put on one of the great individual IPL performances of the season. 101 not out off 54 balls. A century at Wankhede against Mumbai Indians, in an El Clasico, on a pitch that wasn't easy to bat on. He managed his innings brilliantly - scoring 73 in the powerplay as a team, then throttling back when wickets fell around him, then exploding again in the back end, smashing 31 runs off the final over alone including three sixes and three fours off young Krish Bhagat.

When Samson finally reached three figures, Bumrah, Hardik and Suryakumar — three Mumbai Indians - came over to congratulate him. That tells you everything about the kind of knock it was.

CSK posted 207/6. On that pitch, against that attack, it was a par score at worst and a match-winning one at best.

🎳 THEN CAME THE BOWLING

Mumbai Indians needed 208. What followed was a masterclass in spin bowling.

Akeal Hosein opened up with the ball and didn't stop. Using a tight around-the-wicket angle to suffocate left-handers, he worked in tandem with Noor Ahmad to dismantle the MI batting order from the inside out. The visuals from last night will live long in IPL memory - Mumbai Indians batters walking to the crease, surrounded by slips, short legs and short covers, with nowhere to go.

Noor Ahmad struck twice in two balls to send MI into freefall. Hosein finished with 4/17. Nine wickets fell to spin - an IPL record at Wankhede Stadium. Mumbai Indians were bowled out for 104.

CSK won by 103 runs. The biggest winning margin by runs in the history of this fixture. The biggest defeat Mumbai Indians have ever suffered in T20 cricket.

📊 WHY WE WERE ON IT

This is what the process is built for. Not every pick lands. The IPL is volatile, conditions shift, and cricket has a way of humbling even the most confident model. But when the signal is coherent - when the ensemble agrees, the market is mispriced, and the expected value points clearly in one direction - you trust the process and you back it.

Last night the signal was clear. CSK at 2.5 was the play. The model said it. We said it. And Samson and Hosein made sure of it.

The funds ate well last night. 🍽️