✅ IPL 2025 Outright Strategy Recap: Profit Locked, Prediction Delivered

Jun 23

2 min read

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Back on April 15, just 35 games into the IPL season, we published this article outlining four outright bets with meaningful edge - powered by our Monte Carlo simulator and H2H algorithm.

The goal: identify not just who might win, but who was underpriced in the market at that stage of the season.

Now, with the playoffs confirmed, we can say this with confidence:

🎯 2 of our 4 picks — Royal Challengers Bangalore and Gujarat Titans — have made the playoffs.

And here’s the real win:💰 Our strategy has delivered a 62% ROI on the original outright stake.

🧠 Why It Worked

Most punters wait too long — placing outright bets just before the playoffs or final. But that’s when value disappears.

Our approach was different:

We ran season simulations using dynamic H2H probabilities after every match
We identified mispriced teams early while their odds were still generous
We capitalised before the market fully adjusted to team strength, run rate swings, and key player form

This is what MatchMind was built for — quantifying edge early, and knowing when to act.

🔁 Holding, Hedging or Cashing Out?

Because our bets were placed after just 35 games (less than two-thirds through the season), it gave us room to:

Hedge if prices moved in our favour
Lock in profits early if teams qualified early
Or ride it out if conviction remained high

Either way, we were not at the mercy of pre-match emotion or mid-table volatility.

📈 What’s Next?

This success shows just how powerful our Monte Carlo + model-informed betting framework can be — not just for game-to-game calls, but for futures, outrights, and strategic market entry.

Stay tuned for our playoff-specific strategies, and deeper coverage of value underdog scenarios as team composition changes with international player exits.